The EU Conundrum

Winston Churchill once said that Russia was a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma. The same could arguably be said about the EU, with the proviso that the riddle has to be solved in 24 different languages. Such is the size and complexity of the EU. 27 countries and around 500 million people, often pulling in different directions (not least in fiscal matters) would be a challenge for any bureaucracy. Leading this is what awaits the newly elected EU Parliament and the new President of the EU Commission.

The fact is that neither the Parliament nor the President can guarantee a return to prosperity. Creating unemployment for Europe’s youth is undoubtedly a priority but turning a priority into a reality has so far been elusive. As much as politicians like to make promises around issues like this, we onlookers should look at events in a harsher light. The EU elections of May 2014 provide us with a good starting point to analyse some of the issues surrounding the future of the EU after the shift in the parliament’s majority.

Democracy: A terrible way to govern until you consider the alternatives

The EU Parliamentary elections just passed may go down in history as the election of unintended consequences. Eurosceptics may have dominated the headlines but paradoxically, the anti-EU parties will now partake in European Parliamentary debates, moving from outside the tent to inside. Unfortunately for their supporters, these politicians are unlikely to turn their nose up at the MEP salary and pension. And neither will exist if there is no EU.

As for the move towards extremist parties – as distressing as the move towards anti-immigrant parties was, unfortunately it’s quite typical of what happens in times of high unemployment. When people don’t have jobs, they’re left looking for scapegoats. Bureaucrats are an easy target. For some, so are the foreigners who possess jobs or benefits. Thankfully, the move towards these parties by some seems to have been a wake-up call for others. The disgust vented online and in the media at this nasty trend suggests the mainstream won’t let it go any further.

So it could well be that the extremist elements, far from achieving their aims, will only serve to strengthen the EU-centrists. If this does turn out to be the case, it might be that the EU has become what the author Nicholas Taleb referred to as “antifragile.” That is, it gains from disorder. In a union of 27 countries and 500 million people, gaining from disorder would be no bad thing.

Old habits and new realities

The fact that euroscepticism is thriving should not come as a surprise to anybody. It has been around since Otto Bismarck and probably before. However, almost 60 years since the foundation of the European Economic Community, it is still in the minority in most countries. Euroscepticism can be a valid point of view, depending on what the individual voter’s reason for having it is. It’s slightly redundant at this stage, though; the EU is not going to disappear anytime soon. Voting for it to go away is like voting for the Hapsburg Empire to come back.

Bear in mind too, that in any one time in Europe, there are tens of active and sometimes militant separatist groups looking to separate from “their” countries. France currently has around 5 such groups, for example. Spain has around ten. Is it any wonder then that so many voters would want to separate from the EU, when so many want to separate from the country they’re currently living in? It seems to stand to reason that they would follow this path, regardless.

The pro- and anti-EU camps all need to face new realities. Protectionism and nationalism have to give way to pragmatism. It could well be that leaving the EU is right for some countries. Clearly, each country has to decide this based on its merits for that individual country. The EU has its faults but as an example of a free market involving a bloc of nations, it’s unrivalled. Countries should always be entitled to leave, and perhaps it should form an active part of their national debate. But they should be very careful about what they wish for

After the elections and beyond

The new parliament cannot guarantee prosperity in Europe. It can only do its part by putting in place a framework to ensure this is the most likely outcome. This way as well, there will be less inclination to say that the EU is meddling in their nations’ affairs. The shift in parliament after the recent elections will at least mean that these decisions can be made faster. The last thing Europe needs is the sclerosis that affected the leadership during the financial crisis. The EU is slowly learning from what has held it up in the near past. Its near future should make interesting viewing.