Thursday, February 12, 2015

The Potential Value to Scottish Football of removing Work Permit Restrictions

Background
FIFA’s plan to ban Third-Party Ownership (TPO) of footballers means that footballers can no longer be partly owned by third parties such as football investment funds. The money provided by these third parties was being used by indebted South American clubs to pay players’ salaries.

Currently the top 20 teams in Brazil have debts exceeding US$3 billion[i], while premier division Argentine clubs have a total debt of US$1.5 billion[ii]. This money will have to come from somewhere and logic would suggest that it will come from an asset sell-off: fire-sales of players in the short- to mid-term.

Banning TPO means that Latin American clubs will be starved of money required to pay their players. This will likely create a glut of Latin American footballers on the global transfer market, causing their value to drop and creating an opportunity for Celtic Football Club and Scottish football in general.

Portugal: A model for Scotland
The largest markets for South American footballers in Europe by numbers have traditionally been Spain and Portugal. Portugal is more comparable than Spain to Scotland given its size and football revenues, and provides a useful case study for where Scotland is currently missing out on an opportunity.

Outside the top three clubs in Portugal – Porto, Benfica and Sporting – the average attendance for games in 2013/14 was 4,447, compared to the Scottish average of 6,808[iii], suggesting that outside of the traditional “big three,” the game in Portugal is very similar to that of Scotland.

In fact, the total attendance figure for the premier league in Portugal in 2013 was 2,457,194, generated by 18 teams while the figure for Scotland was 1,981,982, generated by 12 teams. And none of the big three teams in Portugal could match Celtic’s average home attendance (see figures below):

Average Home attendance of Portuguese "Big three" vs. Celtic (2013/2014)
Celtic
46,808
Benfica
43,613
Sporting
33,703
Porto
28,685

Depending on Champions League progress, Celtic’s annual revenues compare favourably to those of Porto, although they lag those of Benfica. However, when transfer revenues are taken into account, Celtic’s revenues are left behind by the Portuguese clubs.

Portuguese clubs have successfully leveraged their links with Brazil and Latin America at large to create what is an effect a large export industry of footballers. As of 2014, there are 111 Brazilian footballers alone, on the books of clubs in Portugal’s Premier League.[iv]

A combination of Third-Party Ownership (TPO) and a lack of transparency make it difficult to ascertain the net income generated by sales of Latin American footballers by Portuguese clubs, but it can safely be estimated at over £50m annually, and on occasion even exceeding £100m .

Scottish Football’s export of footballers – despite its comparability to the scale of Portuguese Football – is meagre by comparison. In 3 years, if we take England to be an export market, the combined exports of players from Scottish football amounted to £42.6m (see below):

Year
Player
From
To
Fee (£m)
2014
Tony Watt
Celtic
Standard Liege
1.2

Andrew Robertson
Dundee United
Hull City
2.85

Stevie May
St. Johnstone
Sheffield Wednesday
0.8

Fraser Forster
Celtic
Southampton
10


2013
Johnny Russell
Dundee United
Derby County
0.75

Michael Tidser
Greenock Morton
Rotherham United
0.05

Victor Wanyama
Celtic
Southampton
12.5

Gary Hooper
Celtic
Norwich City
5.5

Kelvin Wilson
Celtic
Nottingham Forest
2.5


2012
Morton Rasmussen
Celtic
FC Midtjyllan
0.25

Ki Sung-Yueng
Celtic
Swansea City
6

Matthew Kennedy
Kilmarnock
Everton
0.2
Total



£42.60

Scottish football clubs are consequently entering European club competitions on an unequal ground with Portuguese clubs. Through increased options for acquiring players, Portuguese clubs increase their chances of succeeding in these competitions and benefit from increased television revenue (on top of player sales).

This situation had led to clubs like Braga (average attendance: c. 10,000) reaching the UEFA Cup Final in 2011, while the last time a comparable Scottish club (Aberdeen, average attendance c. 13,000) reached a European final was 31 years ago, in 1984.
  
Capitalizing on the Opportunity
Clearly, there is money to be made from South American footballers, which Celtic and other Scottish clubs are not capitalizing on. The experience of Brazilian footballers in the Ukraine and Russia also shows that cultural and climatic differences are not impediments to generating profit on South America players.

Until now, Celtic has been unable to tap into this market of players, however. This is because of UK immigration laws, which mean that South Americans require either an EU passport or a work permit (acquired after several caps, when the player is often already excessively priced).

A strong case can be made that Scotland can benefit in terms of income and its international profile from loosening restrictions on footballers’ work permits. Celtic and other Scottish clubs are currently competing in an already hyper-competitive arena on an uneven playing ground.

I contend that Celtic should lobby the Scottish FA and/or the Scottish government to remove the aforementioned restrictions. A proposal could be made whereby the restriction is loosened on a limited amount of imports or for a limited period of time or that a certain number can only be fielded at any one time.

It could be made clear to the Scottish FA (perhaps by using the example of Portugal), that imports from Latin America have not hindered the domestic game or the success of the national team – rather they have raised the standard and allowed domestic clubs to compete on a European stage and gain access to increased TV revenue.

Summary
I have attempted to outline the case for Celtic to lobby the Scottish Government to loosen its restrictions on foreign footballers. Scottish football Association is looking to sell a product to a global audience at the same time as significantly limiting its ability to do so by imposing inflexible legal restrictions.

This is patently an opportunity for Scottish football to capitalize on and can be summarized by the following:

-       Latin America is home to many of the world’s most under-valued footballers
-       The fall of TPO as well as massive club debts in these countries mean these footballers are set to become even cheaper
-       Other European clubs have benefitted on several levels from the ability to recruit these players without legal restriction
-       The subsequent export of these players combined with larger television audiences has the potential to generate much larger revenues for Scottish football.




[ii] http://www.argentinaindependent.com/life-style/sport/grondonas-legacy-life-without-the-godfather-of-argentina-football/
[iii] Figures provided by WorldFootball.net
[iv] Figure obtained from club profiles on Soccerway.com

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